The war in Ukraine: simple answers to complex questions Anton Naichuk, the head of East European Council
When Russia’s war against Ukraine moved to the local level, and the Russian army directed its key efforts in the Donbas direction, we observed a high pace of offensive actions because of a significant artillery advantage. Among the representatives of the Russian military-political command was growing fictitious believes that victory was near, and Donetsk and Luhansk regions would be finally occupied.
But what do we see now? Undoubtedly, Ukraine managed to change the course of the war and stop the advance of the enemy. Russia cannot achieve its goals with the available resources, looking for a way out of the impasse. The confrontation has moved into the positional phase and can transformed into a stalemate. In this regard, there have been many versions, and sometimes speculations, regarding how events will develop, who wins and how the front line will change.
Since the situation is very dynamic, and the mass media in some places make hasty conclusions or give unsubstantiated forecasts, we will try to give clear answers to the key questions of the Ukrainian-Russian war.
When will there be a Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kherson?
It has already taken place, but not in the form of an active phase of actions with numerous casualties from the advancing side, but in the form of a positional struggle aimed at impressing the logistical goals of the Russian army on the temporarily occupied territories and the gradual liberation of smaller settlements.
A counteroffensive should not be understood as a large-scale throw in the traditions of the Second World War. First, the implementation of such an offensive will require a significant amount of equipment, which, unfortunately, is not being produced at the pace expected by Ukraine. Secondly, the key goal of the Ukrainian command is to preserve personnel.
Taking into account the above factors, the Ukrainian side decided to strike the occupation forces’ warehouses and infrastructure (for example Antonivsky bridge) in order to limit the defence potential of the Russian army and cut off communications for the group located in Kherson.
At the same time, at the end of August, Ukrainian troops switched to more active ground operations, the goal of which is to return control of Ukrainian territory step by step, starting with small villages. The strategic perspective is to win battle for Kherson by the end of the year.
In addition, Ukraine’s intentions should not be limited to the southern direction. Depending on the unfolding of events, the armed forces can also prepare “military surprises”, such as attempts to knock the Russian army out of Izyum – a strategically important place in the military actions of the Russian army in the Donbas direction.
Is Russia preparing a counterattack on the southern front?
Fearing offensive actions on the part of Ukraine, Russia began to transfer manpower and equipment to the south. In part, this redistribution of forces affected the ability to conduct a campaign in the eastern direction and was reflected in the reduction of its pace.
Given the presence of landing forces as part of Russian troops in the south, there is a possibility of their use for offensive operations. Especially, in the context of Russia’s political strategic plans to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, the Kremlin probably keep intentions of making a dash to Mykolaiv and creating conditions for a land encirclement of Odessa, while simultaneously advancing in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.
However, in practice, the implementation of Russian plans seems impossible this year due to the lack of human resources. Russia is consolidating its positions in order to increase the chances of holding them, and talks about a new stage of the offensive campaign still look like an element of information warfare.
Did Ukraine “turn the tide” of the war?
The initiative in the southern direction was intercepted: Ukraine began to act as number one, forcing the Russian army to defend itself. At the same time, Russia began to transfer its own forces and equipment to the south in order to hold the occupied territories, which reduced the topic of the offensive in Donbas. Undoubtedly, Ukraine began to dictate the conditions on the battlefield, destroyed the plans of the Russian side and forced it to react to the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Will Russia announce mobilization?
The Russian president refuses such a step, as it will officially confirm the inability of the Russian army to fulfil the assigned combat tasks. The myth of a professional, invincible army will be destroyed.
That is why Russian side made provides active work in the regions to recruit volunteers. Such actions are a kind of compromise, quiet and non-public mobilization.
Russia’s problems with the number of manpower are noticeable in the war. Even despite the superiority in artillery, the Russians cannot turn a tactical success into an operational one due to a lack of human resources and an effective solution to the problem has not yet been found.
What is the situation with referendums on the occupied territories?
Kremlin is thinking about referendums as a possible scenario and preparation to it is on the progressive stage. In contempt of that, with a high probability the “voting date” will be postponed to the winter period.
Firstly, the active actions of the Ukrainian army do not allow even a fictitious referendum to be held in the Kherson region.
Secondly, Russian troops have not even entered the borders of Donetsk region, which calls into question the feasibility of holding referendums.
Will Belarus join the war against Ukraine?
By providing his own territory for the use of the Russian army, Oleksandr Lukashenko fell into even greater international isolation and destroyed the possibilities for pragmatic bilateral Ukrainian-Belarusian relations. However, it is unlikely that he wants to continue crossing the red lines for several reasons. Belarusian society is against “getting involved” in the war, and the real military potential of the country will allow gathering 3-4 battalion-tactical groups, which will not allow achieving real goals in ground operations in the Kyiv, Zhytomyr, or Rivne directions. Given these circumstances, Minsk really does not want to fight against Ukraine, so as not to provoke a crisis within its own country.
When will be end of the war?
Everything looks as if Russia will still try to make a final push to occupy the entire Donetsk region by the end of the current year due to reinforcements in the form of overturning the formed third army corps. After that, Russia will need a break to recover. Therefore, the purpose of Russian side – long-term conflict.
Russia has set itself up for a long war, hoping that a difficult winter will weaken Europe’s support for Ukraine. In addition, the Kremlin is ready to add an energy component to the tools of the war against Ukraine. Russia is preparing to exclude the Zaporizhia Nuclear Station from the Ukrainian system.
Can Ukraine and Russia restart negotiations?
At this stage, it is difficult to imagine a diplomatic decision. Ukraine is not ready for theoretical Minsk-3 and Russia is no longer in a position to dictate terms. The position of official Kyiv is based on full public support: the Ukrainian army must liberate the occupied territories and no one will enter into losing negotiations. In turn, Russia reached an impasse in the war, and the Russian commandment is trying to find a way out of the situation. However, no one in Ukraine will consider Russian demands.
Does the West give to Ukraine enough support?
To deter the attack of Russia – yes, for the complete liberation of temporarily occupied territories – no. The help from the USA, Great Britain and Poland is especially noticeable. Since the beginning of the war, the American side has already allocated more than 10 billion dollars (and on Independence Day the largest tranche in the amount of 3 billion was provided), constantly sends strategically important military equipment to Ukraine (in particular, the M142 HIMARS rocket launcher system, missiles AGM-88 for the launch of which Ukrainian aircraft were adopted, anti-aircraft missile systems “Javelin” etc).
Poland made maximum efforts to increase the military arsenal of Ukraine. Especially in terms of providing tanks and artillery.
Britain has always held a leading position in the military provision of Ukraine’s military needs in artillery guns and hundreds of drones.
An additional symbol of international support was the Turkish “Bayraktar” drone, which allows the Ukrainian armed forces to gain an advantage in air confrontation.
Other potential flagships of Ukraine’s potential support – France and Germany – have not met all the expectations of the Ukrainian side due to various circumstances.
Unfortunately, it is felt that the European countries did not prepare for a big war and the stocks of military warehouses do not allow Ukraine to fully provide the necessary volumes of equipment. The problem is that the Ukrainian-Russian war can be characterized as an artillery battle, where the old Soviet stockpile favors is very important. Ukraine is gradually running out of old ammunition, while Russia still manages to find resources. Europe also does not have the ability to constantly find Soviet weapons for Ukrainian needs, but it does not have the opportunity to provide advanced technologies of the new model. The EU, Britain and the USA have developed training programs for the transition of the Ukrainian army to NATO standards, but this is not a matter of one month.
That is why Ukraine needs more military support to successfully oust the enemy from Ukrainian territories.
What 2023 can bring for Ukraine?